Tracking the odds the the contestants will certainly win MTV"s dating reality show. Featuring quick recaps for each AYTO episode, grids, burndown charts, strategy, and an explanation of the blackout rule. Featured in Elle, Vice, and more. Review the episode 1 article if you want to know just how this works.

You are watching: Are you the one season 5 episode 1


MTV"s are You The One? season 5 features 11 men and 11 women searching for their perfect match. If they manage to assumption: v the specifically right combination, they"ll split $1,000,000.Here I"ll be maintaining track the the possible remaining perfect enhance combinations (with the aid of a computer), and looking right into the potential strategy of play this game. The math work right here will be independent the the romance and excitement that comes through the pairings. Unless noted otherwise, i think the probabilities the a matchup right here being successful are random, ignoring chemistry and also all the components of the display that room actually fun.

Prize and Probability that Winning

All 22 winners will separation a 30-year annuity that will pay out $1,000,000. That way if they elect to take it the present day "lump sum," they"ll finish up with approximately $22,000 each (in addition to a shot in ~ finding your perfect match and also getting some weekly confront time ~ above MTV).The blackout rule, presented in season 3, cut the prize in half if a matchup ceremony outcomes in no lights various other than reality booths.The variety of possible permutations in the original video game is 11 factorial = 11! = 11 * 10 * 9 * 8 * 7 * 6 * 5 * 4 * 3 * 2 * 1 = 39,916,800. Placed simply, a random guess would have actually a 1 in 39,916,800 opportunity of to win (0.00000002505%). The calculations done below throughout the season evaluate every one of those 39,916,800possibilities against the details that"s been mutual through reality booths and matchup ceremonies to figure out the collection of perfect matches. The easy method of saying it: I use a computer system program to perform a process of removed in seconds.Previous seasons have actually used 20 contestants - by adding another pair to the house, MTV has made this season 11 times harder than the four previous seasons.The present has multiple obstacles where added information is provided, reducing the number of possible combinations. The contestants only have actually 10 episodes to discover the perfect match, for this reason they"ll require to reduce it conveniently to have a chance.

Live Blog

9:00: Welcome earlier for Season 5! As pointed out above, this season now has actually 22 contestants, and getting every one of the perfect matches is now 11 time harder. Is MTV setting us up for the very first failure, or will they rig that again?9:01: They"ve moved from Hawaii come the Dominican Republic!9:03: The parents are playing matchmaker, selecting three dates for the getaway date: Joey - Carolina, Hannah - Osvaldo, and Gianna - Hayden.9:04: The parents are setting up couples where the girl is not in come the guy at all!9:06: Casandra have the right to count!9:07: Haircut, Eyebrows, and also a Tan.9:08: A girl that loves animals??9:09: Also, Hayden, her mom picked you!9:10: dispersing seed to watch what bites?9:11: Michael v a good line: "I dated a the majority of girls v holes yet none the them obtained the surgery."9:13: Kathryn and also Mike going for it - in prior of everyone!!!9:18: might not be the indecision that"s making her stomach hurt...9:20: Hayden freaking the end Gianna. Too weird because that her!9:21: The AfterMatch is back!9:26: The getaway is speak a truck through a forest and river.9:28: "I would never cheat top top a girl." "I prefer that around you." (Cue happy music and a kiss!)Truth Booth9:29: Hayden and also Gianna come the reality Booth!9:30: Twist!! "What is the truth booth worth to you?"9:34: Ryan uses the residence a transaction - give up the fact booth and also the appropriate to ever before send that couple to the truth booth, acquire an extra $150,000 added to the prize.9:35: Derrick to know what"s up - the very first episode, whereby they know nothing (9.1%), is probably the ideal time to add this money. And also yet they pick not to take it the trade!9:36: No enhance means36,288,000 combinations remain.

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AndreDerrickEdwardHaydenJaylanJoeyMichaelMikeOsvaldoOzzyTylerAliciaCarolinaCasandraGiannaHannahKamKariKathrynShannonTaylorTyranny
9.0%9.0%9.0%10.0%9.0%9.0%9.0%9.0%9.0%9.0%9.0%
9.0%9.0%9.0%10.0%9.0%9.0%9.0%9.0%9.0%9.0%9.0%
9.0%9.0%9.0%10.0%9.0%9.0%9.0%9.0%9.0%9.0%9.0%
10.0%10.0%10.0%X10.0%10.0%10.0%10.0%10.0%10.0%10.0%
9.0%9.0%9.0%10.0%9.0%9.0%9.0%9.0%9.0%9.0%9.0%
9.0%9.0%9.0%10.0%9.0%9.0%9.0%9.0%9.0%9.0%9.0%
9.0%9.0%9.0%10.0%9.0%9.0%9.0%9.0%9.0%9.0%9.0%
9.0%9.0%9.0%10.0%9.0%9.0%9.0%9.0%9.0%9.0%9.0%
9.0%9.0%9.0%10.0%9.0%9.0%9.0%9.0%9.0%9.0%9.0%
9.0%9.0%9.0%10.0%9.0%9.0%9.0%9.0%9.0%9.0%9.0%
9.0%9.0%9.0%10.0%9.0%9.0%9.0%9.0%9.0%9.0%9.0%
Some very loose estimates on expected values ~ above the fact booths... The estimate here is based upon the expected variety of combinations produced by the reality booth, multiply by the prize and variety of matchup ceremonies remaining. That does no account because that the value of future reality booths, blackouts, or that each subsequent matchup ceremony reduces the number of combinations staying - all of which might significantly influence the calculation!Estimatedvalue that forfeiting truth booth for $150,000: $1.53Estimatedvalue the going to the reality booth: $1.61Estimatedvalue of shedding the fact booth: $1.47It"s precious trading the reality booth because that approximately: $198,020Matchup Ceremony
The brand-new blackout preeminence is the compensation gets reduced in half - not simply losing $250,000!Kam - EdwardTaylor - TylerKari - MikeCasandra - JaylanCarolina - JoeyTyranny - OsvaldoGianna - OzzyHannah - MichaelAlicia - AndreKathryn - DerrickShannon - HaydenBlackout odds: 36.4% (13,216,113 of 36,288,000)Instant success possible: YesMost likely number of lights: 1Two matches median 6,741,548 possibilities remain.AndreDerrickEdwardHaydenJaylanJoeyMichaelMikeOsvaldoOzzyTylerAliciaCarolinaCasandraGiannaHannahKamKariKathrynShannonTaylorTyranny
17.8%8.2%8.2%8.9%8.2%8.2%8.2%8.2%8.2%8.0%8.2%
8.2%8.2%8.2%8.9%8.2%17.8%8.2%8.2%8.2%8.0%8.2%
8.2%8.2%8.2%8.9%17.8%8.2%8.2%8.2%8.2%8.0%8.2%
8.9%8.9%8.9%X8.9%8.9%8.9%8.9%8.9%19.8%8.9%
8.2%8.2%8.2%8.9%8.2%8.2%17.8%8.2%8.2%8.0%8.2%
8.2%8.2%17.8%8.9%8.2%8.2%8.2%8.2%8.2%8.0%8.2%
8.2%8.2%8.2%8.9%8.2%8.2%8.2%17.8%8.2%8.0%8.2%
8.2%17.8%8.2%8.9%8.2%8.2%8.2%8.2%8.2%8.0%8.2%
8.0%8.0%8.0%19.8%8.0%8.0%8.0%8.0%8.0%7.9%8.0%
8.2%8.2%8.2%8.9%8.2%8.2%8.2%8.2%8.2%8.0%17.8%
8.2%8.2%8.2%8.9%8.2%8.2%8.2%8.2%17.8%8.0%8.2%