Tracking the odds that the contestants will win MTV"s dating reality show. Featuring quick recaps for each AYTO episode, grids, burndown charts, strategy, and an explanation of the blackout rule. Featured in Elle, Vice, and more. Read the Episode 1 post if you want to know how this works.

You are watching: Are you the one season 5 episode 1


MTV"s Are You The One? season 5 features 11 men and 11 women looking for their perfect match. If they manage to guess the exactly right combination, they"ll split $1,000,000.Here I"ll be keeping track of the possible remaining perfect match combinations (with the help of a computer), and looking into the potential strategy of playing this game. The math work here will be independent of the romance and excitement that comes with the pairings. Unless noted otherwise, assume the probabilities of a matchup here being successful are random, ignoring chemistry and all the parts of the show that are actually fun.

Prize and Probability of Winning

All 22 winners will split a 30-year annuity that will pay out $1,000,000. That means if they elect to take the present day "lump sum," they"ll end up with around $22,000 each (in addition to a shot at finding their perfect match and getting some weekly face time on MTV).The blackout rule, introduced in season 3, cuts the prize in half if a matchup ceremony results in no lights other than truth booths.The number of possible permutations in the original game is 11 factorial = 11! = 11 * 10 * 9 * 8 * 7 * 6 * 5 * 4 * 3 * 2 * 1 = 39,916,800. Put simply, a random guess would have a 1 in 39,916,800 chance of winning (0.00000002505%). The calculations done here throughout the season evaluate all of those 39,916,800possibilities against the information that"s been shared through truth booths and matchup ceremonies to figure out the set of perfect matches. The easy way of saying it: I use a computer program to do a process of elimination in seconds.Previous seasons have used 20 contestants - by adding another couple to the house, MTV has made this season 11 times harder than the four previous seasons.The show has multiple challenges where additional information is provided, reducing the number of possible combinations. The contestants only have 10 episodes to find the perfect match, so they"ll need to reduce it quickly to have a chance.

Live Blog

9:00: Welcome back for Season 5! As mentioned above, this season now has 22 contestants, and getting all of the perfect matches is now 11 times harder. Is MTV setting us up for the first failure, or will they rig it again?9:01: They"ve moved from Hawaii to the Dominican Republic!9:03: The parents are playing matchmaker, selecting three dates for the getaway date: Joey - Carolina, Hannah - Osvaldo, and Gianna - Hayden.9:04: The parents are setting up couples where the girl is not in to the guy at all!9:06: Casandra can count!9:07: Haircut, Eyebrows, And a Tan.9:08: A girl who loves animals??9:09: Also, Hayden, her mom picked you!9:10: Spreading seed to see what bites?9:11: Michael with a good line: "I dated a lot of girls with holes but none of them got the surgery."9:13: Kathryn and Mike going for it - in front of everyone!!!9:18: Might not be the indecision that"s making your stomach hurt...9:20: Hayden freaking out Gianna. Too weird for her!9:21: The AfterMatch is back!9:26: The getaway is riding a truck through a forest and river.9:28: "I would never cheat on a girl." "I like that about you." (Cue happy music and a kiss!)Truth Booth9:29: Hayden and Gianna to the Truth Booth!9:30: Twist!! "What is the truth booth worth to you?"9:34: Ryan offers the house a deal - give up the truth booth and the right to ever send that couple to the truth booth, get an extra $150,000 added to the prize.9:35: Derrick knows what"s up - the first episode, where they know nothing (9.1%), is probably the best time to add this money. And yet they choose not to take the trade!9:36: No match means36,288,000 combinations remain.

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AndreDerrickEdwardHaydenJaylanJoeyMichaelMikeOsvaldoOzzyTylerAliciaCarolinaCasandraGiannaHannahKamKariKathrynShannonTaylorTyranny
9.0%9.0%9.0%10.0%9.0%9.0%9.0%9.0%9.0%9.0%9.0%
9.0%9.0%9.0%10.0%9.0%9.0%9.0%9.0%9.0%9.0%9.0%
9.0%9.0%9.0%10.0%9.0%9.0%9.0%9.0%9.0%9.0%9.0%
10.0%10.0%10.0%X10.0%10.0%10.0%10.0%10.0%10.0%10.0%
9.0%9.0%9.0%10.0%9.0%9.0%9.0%9.0%9.0%9.0%9.0%
9.0%9.0%9.0%10.0%9.0%9.0%9.0%9.0%9.0%9.0%9.0%
9.0%9.0%9.0%10.0%9.0%9.0%9.0%9.0%9.0%9.0%9.0%
9.0%9.0%9.0%10.0%9.0%9.0%9.0%9.0%9.0%9.0%9.0%
9.0%9.0%9.0%10.0%9.0%9.0%9.0%9.0%9.0%9.0%9.0%
9.0%9.0%9.0%10.0%9.0%9.0%9.0%9.0%9.0%9.0%9.0%
9.0%9.0%9.0%10.0%9.0%9.0%9.0%9.0%9.0%9.0%9.0%
Some very loose estimates on expected values on the truth booths... the estimate here is based on the expected number of combinations produced by the truth booth, multiplied by the prize and number of matchup ceremonies remaining. It does not account for the value of future truth booths, blackouts, or that each subsequent matchup ceremony reduces the number of combinations remaining - all of which could significantly impact the calculation!Estimatedvalue of forfeiting truth booth for $150,000: $1.53Estimatedvalue of going to the truth booth: $1.61Estimatedvalue of losing the truth booth: $1.47It"s worth trading the truth booth for approximately: $198,020Matchup Ceremony
The new blackout rule is the prize gets cut in half - not just losing $250,000!Kam - EdwardTaylor - TylerKari - MikeCasandra - JaylanCarolina - JoeyTyranny - OsvaldoGianna - OzzyHannah - MichaelAlicia - AndreKathryn - DerrickShannon - HaydenBlackout odds: 36.4% (13,216,113 of 36,288,000)Instant win possible: YesMost likely number of lights: 1Two matches mean 6,741,548 possibilities remain.AndreDerrickEdwardHaydenJaylanJoeyMichaelMikeOsvaldoOzzyTylerAliciaCarolinaCasandraGiannaHannahKamKariKathrynShannonTaylorTyranny
17.8%8.2%8.2%8.9%8.2%8.2%8.2%8.2%8.2%8.0%8.2%
8.2%8.2%8.2%8.9%8.2%17.8%8.2%8.2%8.2%8.0%8.2%
8.2%8.2%8.2%8.9%17.8%8.2%8.2%8.2%8.2%8.0%8.2%
8.9%8.9%8.9%X8.9%8.9%8.9%8.9%8.9%19.8%8.9%
8.2%8.2%8.2%8.9%8.2%8.2%17.8%8.2%8.2%8.0%8.2%
8.2%8.2%17.8%8.9%8.2%8.2%8.2%8.2%8.2%8.0%8.2%
8.2%8.2%8.2%8.9%8.2%8.2%8.2%17.8%8.2%8.0%8.2%
8.2%17.8%8.2%8.9%8.2%8.2%8.2%8.2%8.2%8.0%8.2%
8.0%8.0%8.0%19.8%8.0%8.0%8.0%8.0%8.0%7.9%8.0%
8.2%8.2%8.2%8.9%8.2%8.2%8.2%8.2%8.2%8.0%17.8%
8.2%8.2%8.2%8.9%8.2%8.2%8.2%8.2%17.8%8.0%8.2%